Trends and disruptors

The raw data for thinking about the future can be effectively looked at as a combination of trends and disruptors.

Trends can be thought of as things which more or less continuously change over time - commonly things like prices or population statistics.

Disruptors are events which can change in a sharp ‘step' and cause the way in which we operate to change relatively sharply.

On this page we consider a selection of trends and disruptors which may affect your business and briefly describe how or why that might happen. These items will be updated periodically.

We suggest you consider these in relation to your own business, as the consequences of these trends or disruptors may be quite different for you.

For further information about foresight techniques and ways to future proof your business please contact Steve Vaughan srv@insideoutworks.co.nz

Trends 

The increasing real price of energy

Real energy prices have been showing an upward trend and this will continue. We use energy for everything from running vehicles to powering businesses and homes. This means making choices about investing in greater energy efficiency or accepting the knock-on effect of rising energy costs. 

Cultural diversity in New Zealand

New Zealand is becoming an increasingly diverse society. This means ways to engage with and deliver services that cater for: older age groups, Maori, Asian, Pacific, migrant and refugee communities will need to be different. 

Climate change

Regardless of whether or not you agree that climate change is caused by human behaviour, it is clear that climate change is happening. Most projections suggest that more extreme weather events will become more frequent. Therefore we need to be prepared for more frequent (and probalby more intense) droughts and more storms.

Falling price of data transmission

The effective cost of data transmission may fall by up to 10 times in the next 5 years.  This has implications for how companies operate and ways of working. Already access to broadband internet and mobile technology has made knowledge working remotely viable, changing fundamentally the nature of such work.

Shifts in knowledge working

There is a significant shift for professionals from working in salaried positions at a fixed place of work to operating as consultants performing temporary or contract work or having their own businesses. Some estimates place the proportion of knowledge workers already working this way at over 40% and this is increasing.

Getting and retaining the right talent

As businesses are becoming more knowledge dependent there is a reducing pool of people available to drive such businesses due to an ageing workforce. The result is likely to be a fierce contest for the right skills to run businesses. Pre-emptive action may be needed to retain top talent.

Disruptors

3D printers

3D printers print real objects using computer aided designs. As this technology matures expect: much shorter production time (from design to product) for specialised  components, printing of replacement parts remotely and lower weight and less wastage for some component parts.

E-readers and E-commerce

E-readers such as Apple's Ipad and the Amazon Kindle are already reducing the number of items printed on paper. These items will fundamentally shift the way information is conveyed on a scale akin to the invention of the printing press.

Longevity

While longevity is a trend, the effect is likely to be disruptive.  Current employment and social support practices are based on concepts like ‘retirement age' which have become outdated. This is likely to translate into re-thinking human resource practices and government provided social services.

Distributed sensors

Advances and reduced costs of different types of sensor technology togther with decreased of cost data collection and management are making it practical to measure things once considered too costly. The applications already include:

  • sensors in water supply networks which detect leaks
  • so called smart meters for electricity supply
  • strain gauges built in to structures that warn of potential damage undetectable to the human eye
  • devices built in to engines and vehicles  to relay key operating parameters - already used for ‘first warnings' of incidents in long-haul passenger jets.